Post-16 Capacity: Demand is rising but the system can’t respond

By Paul Stannard, AELP's Senior Policy Manager (16 - 19)

The debate about post-16 capacity often starts in the wrong place. Across the country, high-quality providers are not struggling to attract learners or employers. They are being held back by a system that restricts growth, delays funding and makes it harder, not easier, to respond to rising demand.

Feedback from AELP members delivers a consistent and stark message: the system does not lack demand, ambition or quality providers across the 16-19 ecosystem. It lacks capacity and that capacity gap is directly influenced by policy and funding. 

Providers report strong and sustained learner demand in construction (including entry level routes), early years, hairdressing and a number of supporting subjects including functional skills, GCSE English and maths, and personal development programmes. Demand for SEND provision is particularly acute, with some providers only able to offer places to only around 40% of learners with EHCPs who apply due to their allocated EHCP capacity.  

These pressures are not theoretical. Providers warn that unmet demand is already contributing to rising NEET risk, particularly for learners with SEND, mental health needs or disrupted education histories, precisely those young people the system claims to prioritise.  

Growth is being actively constrained 

Provider feedback shows that many are operating 10–15% above their funded allocation, maintaining waiting lists they are not unable to convert into funded growth. Lagged funding models prevent real-time responses to demand, while the limited availability of capital funding, and a complete absence for independent training providers limits the ability to expand premises, specialist SEND spaces, furnish workshops and specialist delivery areas. 

Crucially, this is not about lack of readiness. Providers report they could expand immediately or within weeks if funding or employer commitments were secured. Large scale expansions could be available by September 2026 if funding can be secured. ITPs are not averse to securing premises at their own risk with the guarantee that funding can be secured to ‘kit’ them out and that learners recruited over their allocation will be supported by the appropriate funding. 

AELP’s priorities on guaranteed growth, funding flexibility and parity reflect this reality. The current system penalises responsiveness and rewards caution, forcing providers to choose between financial risk and turning learners away. Given the impending population bulge and the current levels of interest providers are having to make difficult decisions based on finances rather than what is best for the learner(s).  

Outcomes that exclude the learners who need us most 

Capacity pressures are compounded by narrow definitions of success. Providers report reluctance to expand provision for higher need learners without guaranteed funded growth, given the risk of unfunded delivery and performance measures that fail to recognise progress or distance travelled.  

AELP is clear that success for 16–19 learners must include progression, engagement and readiness for work, not just qualification outcomes. Without this shift, its predicted that capacity constraints will continue to hit the most vulnerable hardest.   

Capacity is a policy choice 

Providers are asking for a system that recognises demand when it appears, funds growth when it is needed, and allows high-quality provision to expand responsibly and quickly. 

The evidence is clear: young people are being turned away not because provision doesn’t exist, but because the system refuses to let it grow. Until capacity is treated as a strategic priority backed by guaranteed growth, flexible funding and outcome reform there is a risk that too many young people will continue to be left without a place to gain the skills and knowledge they need to transition to their planned destination. 

The Association of Employment and Learning Providers (AELP) is a national membership body, proudly representing organisations operating in the skills sector. AELP members deliver a range of training and vocational learning – including the majority of apprenticeships as well as Skills Bootcamps, 16-19 Study Programme, Adult Education Budget and more.

For further information or interviews please contact Matt Strong, Communications Manager, AELP, on 07920 161685 or [email protected]